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Tuesday, November 02, 2004

Election Morning 

I couldn't sleep - I've been up mainlining blog and news coverage since about 6.

In an hour or so my wife and I will head to the polls to cast our votes for Kerry. I can't shake the feeling that the disappointment in our nation and its institutions with which I've been living since the moment nearly 4 years ago when a crooked Supreme Court stopped counting votes and declared GW Bush the winner of the 2000 election is about to end. I'm optimistic - more so than I've been at any point in this race.

Hopefully by this time tomorrow we'll be talking about President-elect Kerry. It will be nice to have a guy in the big chair that I can be proud of again. For me it's never been ABB (Anybody But Bush) - I've been touting Kerry since shortly after the 2000 election. It'll also be nice to start calling that guy the President again, something I have yet to call Gov. Bush since I still maintain he does not legitimately hold the office he's occupied for the past 4 years.

Anyway, enough rambling. What would an election day post be without a prediction which will come back to haunt me or make me famous if it's prescient? Here goes...

Electoral college: a decisive Kerry win with 285-290 (I haven't actually used an electoral calculator so I'm not sure what the exact total would be), with a small outside chance of a 300+ landslide. Kerry will need to win 3 or 4 of Bush's "must win" states to accomplish this, but I'm confident he will (for reasons listed below).

Popular vote: Kerry wins a clear majority, by at least 3%, with Nader lucky to pickup 1%. So that would mean Kerry 51%, Bush 48%, Nader 1%.

Congress: a mixed bag here. I think there's a good chance the Democrats retake the Senate, and I'm predicting a final balance of 52-48 in their favor. Specific races: Betty Castor wins against Bush crony Mel Martinez in FL, and Joe Hoeffel knocks Arlen Specter out of the Pennsylvania delegation, making the creepy homophobe Rick Santorum the senior Senator from that state.

In the House, I don't see the Democrats winning back control, but I think they'll pickup enough seats to even things out a bit more. Final tally: GOP up by 3-4 seats. I've heard Tom Delay is having a tough time with his reelection, and so I'll go out on a limb and say that the Hammer will be sent back to squashing bugs today. I'll also predict that Katherine Harris (R-vote stealer), one of the architects of the 2000 Florida mess (I'm sure it was nice to have your Florida campaign chair in charge of counting the votes in the state which decided the election), will be defeated.

Wishful thinking? Maybe. But I think all the factors are moving in Kerry and the Democrats' favor. The left is definitely more energized, Nader is marginalized, from what I've seen the polls are oversampling Republicans (and still show a tie), and the number of people who are planning to vote just to oust Bush may be enough to make a Kerry victory decisive. Is everyone who's going to vote for Kerry a huge supporter? No. But I would venture that the same could have been said of Clinton in 1992, and he ended up being the most successful Democratic President since FDR.

In any case, I'm really revved up about this election. In the worst case the left has managed to build up a pretty impressive infrastructure after being smacked around for the past 10 years (impeachment, endless "gates" which went nowhere, Florida recount mess, Bush running one of the most secretive administrations in history and managing to bungle the economy, not to mention domestic and foreign policies with little effective opposition), so if things don't go as well as I predicted there will be an apparatus in place for future elections and to challenge what I can confidently predict will be a disastrous second Bush term (I still cringe at the thought of 4 more years of these people when they don't have to worry about re-election).

I guess that's it. I'll post later and reveal how many of my predictions were borne out.

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